Russia and Ukraine remain locked in deadlock after another round of failed peace talks in Istanbul, with no real movement toward ending the grinding war. What was billed as a potential turning point instead confirmed the depth of the divide—particularly on Moscow’s side.

Though both sides agreed to another round of prisoner exchanges, Russia handed Ukrainian negotiators a memorandum outlining its full suite of hardline demands—many of which Kyiv has long deemed unacceptable. The message from the Kremlin was unmistakable: no concessions, no compromise.

Among Russia’s demands: Ukraine must withdraw from four regions Russia has annexed but does not fully control, relinquish its ambition to join any military alliances, host no foreign troops, and commit to permanent demilitarization. The list reads like a blueprint for Ukraine’s subjugation—not peace.

Moscow also insisted on the full restoration of diplomatic and economic ties with the West, the lifting of all sanctions, and a mutual agreement to forgo any war reparations.

“It’s not a peace proposal,” one European diplomat told WafricNews, “it’s a capitulation script.”

Kremlin Hardens, Despite Ukraine’s Growing Reach

The timing of Putin’s rigid posture is striking. Ukraine has in recent weeks demonstrated its ability to strike far beyond its borders, including drone attacks on Russian military infrastructure deep inside enemy territory. Though outgunned, Kyiv is showing strategic agility—and Moscow is taking notice.

Still, Russia has doubled down. Analysts say it reflects Putin’s bet that international fatigue over the war—especially in Washington—may eventually work in his favor.

Trump’s Peace Plan Faces Its First Real Test

That calculus may soon be tested. With no movement from the Kremlin, US President Donald Trump—now several months into his second term—finds his flagship foreign policy goal of securing a swift peace in Ukraine facing collapse.

Trump, who once claimed he could “end the war in 24 hours,” has publicly expressed frustration with Putin’s recent barrage of attacks. In a rare rebuke, the US president said the Russian leader had gone “absolutely MAD” following a wave of strikes on Ukrainian cities.

Behind the scenes, pressure is mounting. Lawmakers across party lines in the US Senate are pushing for a fresh round of crippling sanctions. Senator Richard Blumenthal, a key backer of the new bipartisan sanctions bill, accused Russia of “mocking peace efforts” and warned that the Kremlin is “playing Trump and America for fools.”

Whether Trump will respond with force—or pull back from a fight he once promised to end—is unclear. But the Istanbul talks have left little room for ambiguity: peace will not come through diplomacy alone, at least not on Russia’s current terms.

A Decision Point for Washington

For now, the ball lies in Washington’s court. Trump can escalate pressure, increase military aid to Kyiv, or push back diplomatically. But each day of inaction chips away at his credibility and raises fresh doubts about America’s leverage in shaping the future of the war.

As one senior European official put it: “Putin isn’t just testing Ukraine. He’s testing Trump.”